India shoots down own satellite with missile

India has officially upped the space race ante. Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced on Wednesday that Indian scientists had shot down one of their own satellites in space with an anti-satellite missile (ASAT). 

Modi said the country’s first test of such technology is a major breakthrough that establishes India as a space power. It becomes the fourth country to have used an ASAT, after the US, Russia, and China. The successful anti-satellite test, conducted from an island off India’s east coast, will allow the country to protect its assets in space from foreign attacks. A statement from the foreign ministry read: “The capability achieved…provides credible deterrence against threats to our growing space-based assets from long-range missiles, and proliferation in the types and numbers of missiles.”

The US ran the first anti-satellite test in 1959, when satellites themselves were rare and new. In the 1960s and early 1970s, the Soviet Union tested a weapon that would be launched into orbit, approach enemy satellites and destroy them with an explosive charge. In 1985 the US destroyed one of its satellites with the ASM-135A, launched from an F-15 fighter jet. There were no more tests until 2007, when China jumped in, destroying a satellite and creating the largest orbital debris cloud in history with more than 3,000 objects.

All you need to know about Anti-Satellite Weapons

The anti-satellite weapon capability demonstrated by India was first developed by the US in 1959, primarily to counter the erstwhile Soviet Union.

What is an ASAT?

ASATs (Anti-Satellite Weapons) are aimed at destroying or disabling space assets, whether military or civilian, offensive or defensive, according to a document of the United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research (UNIDIR).

They are generally of two types: kinetic and non-kinetic.

Kinetic ASATs: They must physically strike an object in order to destroy it. Examples of kinetic ASATs include ballistic missiles, drones that drag an object out of orbit or detonate explosives in proximity to the object, or any item launched to coincide with the passage of a target satellite. This means any space asset, even a communications satellite, could become an ASAT if it is used to physically destroy another space object.

Non-kinetic ASATs: A variety of nonphysical means can be used to disable or destroy a space object. These include frequency jamming, blinding lasers or cyberattacks. These methods can also render an object useless without causing the target to break up and fragment absent additional forces intervening.

Guidelines suggested for ASAT tests: In 2018, the UNIDIR proposed three ASAT test guidelines. Under the 'No Debris' guideline, if an actor wishes to test ASAT capabilities, they should not create debris.

If an actor must create debris during an ASAT test, it should be carried out at an altitude sufficiently low that the debris will not be long-lived. It also suggested that actors testing ASATs should notify others of their activities (even if they are not completely transparent on the motivation behind the test) to avoid misperceptions or misinterpretations. However, there is no consensus among the space-faring nations on the guidelines. "We are working on different measures, but nothing has been formally adopted," Daniel Porras, Space Security Fellow at UNIDIR, said.

Anti-Satellite technology will be deterrent in event of space war: Experts
PTI

The anti-satellite missile capability demonstrated by India on Wednesday will be a deterrent in the event of a war where space may be the theatre of action with countries seeking to down enemy satellites, experts explained. "The message goes strong and loud that if any of our satellites is harmed, we possess the capability of destroying yours (the adversary)," said Ajay Lele, senior fellow with the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA).

The former Air Force officer and other experts said India has possessed the anti-missile technology for several years but needed the political go-ahead to actually test it in live conditions. They said the Defence Research Development Organisation (DRDO) received the green signal to prepare for the test two years ago, which came to fruition on Wednesday. In 2012, India conducted simulated tests, establishing the capability but the then Manmohan Singh-led UPA government had not given permission for a live test, likely over concerns that a destroyed satellite would result in debris that would damage satellites of other countries.

Daniel Porras, Space Security Fellow, United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research (UNIDIR), Geneva, said Wednesday's test destroyed a satellite at an altitude of 300 km. "It was not a good sign for LEO (low earth orbit)... which has telecommunication and earth observation satellites and also the International Space Station", which cruises at a height of 400 km, he said.

"The test was done at 300 km, so pretty low, meaning most of the debris will slowly come down. However, lots of objects near that altitude... Not a good sign for all those LEO constellations. Also, if any debris damages other objects, India will be liable under the Liability Convention (if attribution is established)," Porras tweeted. Former ISRO chairperson G Madhavan Nair, who was also secretary, Department of Space, from 2003 to 2009, said the DRDO had anti-missile technology, including the algorithms required for setting the trajectory to hit the moving target.

"Marrying the two technologies (of ISRO and DRDO) was required which happened over the last few years," Nair, who joined the BJP in October 2018, told PTI. He said it would have taken about two years for scientists to perfect the missile launch once the go-ahead for the test was given by the government.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Wednesday announced that the test, named Mission Shakti, was not directed against any country and the disused Indian owned satellite was a pre-determined target. In an address to the nation, Modi also said India has not breached any international law or treaty.

India is only the fourth country to acquire such a specialised and modern capability after the US, Russia and China.

There has been no instance of a space war but the countries have demonstrated their capabilities by testing on their own satellites, like India did on Wednesday. The UNIDIR defines ASAT (Anti-Satellite) as "any capabilities aimed at destroying or disabling space assets for any reason, whether military or civilian, offensive or defensive".

Lele of IDSA said India had already developed Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBM) technology and along with it came the know-how behind ASAT. "Testing the Anti-Satellite missile at LEO at 300 kilometres was only to demonstrate capacity. This is also a deterrence mechanism in the event of a space war, similar to what India has developed in the nuclear domain," he said.

Lele added that a political decision was required as conducting anti-satellite missiles tests could attract international criticism over issues of adding to debris in space and accusations of militarising space. In an era where defence forces rely on satellites for different aspects of security, including intelligence gathering, having ASAT missile capability sends a strong signal to adversaries, he said.

Rajeshwari Pillai Rajagopalan, senior fellow and head of the Nuclear and Space Initiative, Observer Researcher Foundation (ORF), said Wednesday's development reflects India's desire to not make the mistake it did in 1974 when it conducted its first nuclear test in Pokhran. The tests were conducted four years after the Nuclear Proliferation Test (NPT) Treaty came into force in 1970. There is no similar international treaty for space.

"The successful test also acts as a deterrent in event of a space war. The technology was available, so it was high time India tested it. Political will was also needed behind taking the decision," Rajagopalan said, referring to the possibility of an international backlash. In 2007, China destroyed its FengYun 1C weather satellite with an SC-19 missile, leaving behind space debris consisting of 3,280 pieces of trackable debris, as well as up to 32,000 pieces that are non-trackable.

The following year, during Operation Burnt Frost, the US destroyed its own satellite, USA-193, with an SM-3 interceptor creating 174 pieces of trackable debris, plus non-trackable shards. Now, the spectre of space war has spilled over from the realm of Hollywood fiction into Indian reality.
= = =
Debris from Indian A-SAT weapons test expected to eventually burn up: US

Acting U.S. Defense Secretary Patrick Shanahan said on Thursday he expected debris from an Indian anti-satellite weapons test to eventually burn up in the atmosphere instead of creating a lasting debris field that poses a threat to other satellites. Asked about comments by India's top defense scientist that the debris would burn up in 45 days, Shanahan told reporters traveling with him in Florida: "I don't know about the particular time frame there but in terms of threats to other objects, that's consistent with what I've heard."